You need to look at two things when analyzing this, the total of #1 votes ONLY for the winner, and the TOTAL votes for everyone else.
Given this I believe that, for the Dramatic Short you would be correct that they would have won because because Nobody Does It Better recieved 147 #1 ranks and Fueled received 114 votes total, so even if all of them went to #1 for Fueled it would be Nobody at 147 and Fueled at 114.
For the other 2 categories it is more up in the air.
A World of our own got 123 votes for #1, but Ruxa got 129 total votes. If all the items shifted to #1 in the final it would beat a world of our own. This would be very unlikely.
The most interesting one would be the comics. Carry On got 227 #1 votes. Two other nominees total more than Carry On: Foxes in Lover @ 235 and FreeFall at 279.
279 is pretty significantly higher than 227. So in this category it could be much more likely there would have been a different winner based on this method. If you were to choose one category to test it on with the actual data, the comic one for 2021 would be pretty interesting. For the other 2, you may get the same results.
So yes, self promotion still does work, and still would work either way. And I never argued that it should be eliminated entirely, it should just be less effective than it currently is.
People do need to be more aware that they would need to get their vote heard if they want to see a piece win. And one way to get more people to the polls may be putting in a system that people would be willing to vote if they could vote for one candidate and not worry about "ballot stuffing" 3 points and do more damage to the other pieces they didn't give the time of day, as at least two commenters seem to have abstained for this reason.
You have no way to determine this.
You need to look at two things when analyzing this, the total of #1 votes ONLY for the winner, and the TOTAL votes for everyone else.
Given this I believe that, for the Dramatic Short you would be correct that they would have won because because Nobody Does It Better recieved 147 #1 ranks and Fueled received 114 votes total, so even if all of them went to #1 for Fueled it would be Nobody at 147 and Fueled at 114.
For the other 2 categories it is more up in the air.
A World of our own got 123 votes for #1, but Ruxa got 129 total votes. If all the items shifted to #1 in the final it would beat a world of our own. This would be very unlikely.
The most interesting one would be the comics. Carry On got 227 #1 votes. Two other nominees total more than Carry On: Foxes in Lover @ 235 and FreeFall at 279.
279 is pretty significantly higher than 227. So in this category it could be much more likely there would have been a different winner based on this method. If you were to choose one category to test it on with the actual data, the comic one for 2021 would be pretty interesting. For the other 2, you may get the same results.
So yes, self promotion still does work, and still would work either way. And I never argued that it should be eliminated entirely, it should just be less effective than it currently is.
People do need to be more aware that they would need to get their vote heard if they want to see a piece win. And one way to get more people to the polls may be putting in a system that people would be willing to vote if they could vote for one candidate and not worry about "ballot stuffing" 3 points and do more damage to the other pieces they didn't give the time of day, as at least two commenters seem to have abstained for this reason.