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I can only address FAU, as it was the only one where I played a very small role. FAU was in it's heyday when it moved from Phidelphia area to the Northern New Jersey suburbs, making it a popular con for the furry community in New York City, for whom FurFright/Furpocalypse was the nearest con. Even then, there were scheduling issues. One year, they were a week away from Anthrocon. Another year they were very close to Furrydelphia, then they picked a date after school had opened.
FAU also shot itself in the foot in a number of ways. They were notorious for long lines and running late. They ran out of food and closed the poolside picnic. Plus, they were never big enough to book the whole hotel. There were a series of issues between FAU and other guests. Not a lot, and not everyone, but they were there. Several years there were weddings booked during FAU, which apparently had not neccesarily been pointed out to the blushing brides, some of whom did not enjoy cavorting with furries. Though, some did. There was an Indian wedding one year, and the guests seemed to love the fursuiters.
So, it's complex. I think that 'failure to thrive' is symptomatic of issues internal to a con, and not evidence that small cons or lack of growth cannot prosper.
What I DO think is key to success is to have a broad and dedicated volunteer base. Many cons have shut down when key people have left.

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