I've staffed FC for the last several years (in low level positions), as well as been a vendor.
Speaking from my perspective, I don't see FC as dying or stagnating. What appears to be happening is that growth in the Western Coast Furry Market is being siphoned off to other conventions, particularly BLFC and Rainfurrest(until recently), as well as PAX and possibly Texas Furry Fiesta to a smaller extent.
While FC indeed peaked a few years ago, their 2017 numbers are currently only 45 people smaller than their peak in 2014, less than a year after the first BLFC. Let's look at the numbers:
From 2014 to 2017, FC had a 1.26% drop in attendance, for a total loss of 45.
Meanwhile in the same time period, BLFC had a 449.91% growth, an absolute growth of 3996 people.
Do remember that regionally speaking, both FC and BLFC draw from the same market and in a sense are competitors, and that these numbers do not account for the years of Rainfurrest's operation or Pacific Anthro Weekend, both of which were or are growing and the latter of which takes place in the same city as Further Confusion.
There's also the human side of the equation to look at. If I recall correctly, PAW partially started due to a falling out among the senior smoke-filled-backroom types at FC... in 2014, when FC peaked. There were also issues with FC's venue in this timeframe, specifically growing pains of having to move into the convention center proper.
If FC's decline in membership - which has only been during 3 of the last 5 years, as 2014 and 2016 had higher numbers than the prior year - continues or accelerates as the growth of BLFC, PAW, and whatever replaces RF slows down, then I'd suspect that the AAE board discussions will get a bit more panicked.
But FC dying? The numbers don't support it.
Sadly, I probably won't be attending FC anymore, but that's because I moved to the East Coast and hate flying.
I've staffed FC for the last several years (in low level positions), as well as been a vendor.
Speaking from my perspective, I don't see FC as dying or stagnating. What appears to be happening is that growth in the Western Coast Furry Market is being siphoned off to other conventions, particularly BLFC and Rainfurrest(until recently), as well as PAX and possibly Texas Furry Fiesta to a smaller extent.
While FC indeed peaked a few years ago, their 2017 numbers are currently only 45 people smaller than their peak in 2014, less than a year after the first BLFC. Let's look at the numbers:
2013: 3380 | 700
2014: 3560 | 1142
2015: 3527 | 2443
2016: 3536 | 3651
2017: 3515 | 5138
From 2014 to 2017, FC had a 1.26% drop in attendance, for a total loss of 45.
Meanwhile in the same time period, BLFC had a 449.91% growth, an absolute growth of 3996 people.
Do remember that regionally speaking, both FC and BLFC draw from the same market and in a sense are competitors, and that these numbers do not account for the years of Rainfurrest's operation or Pacific Anthro Weekend, both of which were or are growing and the latter of which takes place in the same city as Further Confusion.
There's also the human side of the equation to look at. If I recall correctly, PAW partially started due to a falling out among the senior smoke-filled-backroom types at FC... in 2014, when FC peaked. There were also issues with FC's venue in this timeframe, specifically growing pains of having to move into the convention center proper.
If FC's decline in membership - which has only been during 3 of the last 5 years, as 2014 and 2016 had higher numbers than the prior year - continues or accelerates as the growth of BLFC, PAW, and whatever replaces RF slows down, then I'd suspect that the AAE board discussions will get a bit more panicked.
But FC dying? The numbers don't support it.
Sadly, I probably won't be attending FC anymore, but that's because I moved to the East Coast and hate flying.