So far, the Canadian Hurricane Center thinks it will actually follow the path of 1954's Hurricane Hazel... and make landfall in New Jersey, then make a bee-line for Southern Ontario. While Hazel made a second landfall in the Toronto area, Sandy appears on track to make a second landfall roughly half-way between Toronto and Kingston. Thankfully, New York City and area appear to dodge this bullet (like they did last year with Hurricane Irene, though fears remain of a repeat of the Long Island Express Hurricane of 1938 that caused massive devastation throughout Long Island and New England).
However, this all depends on whether or not the high pressure systems currently situated near Newfoundland and over western Labrador move off towards the North Atlantic and Ireland before Sandy arrives. If not, the high pressure systems will deflect it, as what happened during Perfect Storm of 1991, which may cause it to interact with, or even merge with, the approaching cold front from British Columbia. This is why forecasting remains a very tricky business. Meteorologists don't want to cry wolf, but they also don't want to leave people ill-prepared. While tracking positions of storms, and estimating their movements up to 3 days in advance, has become 3 times as accurate as in the 1960s... estimating strength/intensity of storms can still be problematic.
So far, the Canadian Hurricane Center thinks it will actually follow the path of 1954's Hurricane Hazel... and make landfall in New Jersey, then make a bee-line for Southern Ontario. While Hazel made a second landfall in the Toronto area, Sandy appears on track to make a second landfall roughly half-way between Toronto and Kingston. Thankfully, New York City and area appear to dodge this bullet (like they did last year with Hurricane Irene, though fears remain of a repeat of the Long Island Express Hurricane of 1938 that caused massive devastation throughout Long Island and New England).
However, this all depends on whether or not the high pressure systems currently situated near Newfoundland and over western Labrador move off towards the North Atlantic and Ireland before Sandy arrives. If not, the high pressure systems will deflect it, as what happened during Perfect Storm of 1991, which may cause it to interact with, or even merge with, the approaching cold front from British Columbia. This is why forecasting remains a very tricky business. Meteorologists don't want to cry wolf, but they also don't want to leave people ill-prepared. While tracking positions of storms, and estimating their movements up to 3 days in advance, has become 3 times as accurate as in the 1960s... estimating strength/intensity of storms can still be problematic.
My source for this information is the Current Hurricane Track - Canadian Hurricane Center (a division of Environment Canada's Weather Office).
~ The Legendary RingtailedFox